Bond Yields
Weekly Absolute Change of Bond Yields
Monthly Absolute Change of Bond Yields
Yield Curve Change Dynamics
Illustrating Bull Steepener, Bear Steepener, Bull Flattener, and Bear Flattener scenarios based on monthly Delta changes.
Yield Curve Dynamics Quadrant Chart
Steepening Yield Curve
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Bear Steepener: Indicates higher growth and inflation expectations (long-term rates rise faster than short-term rates). Strong economic outlook attracts capital flows.
🟢🟢🟢 Maximum Strength -
Bull Steepener: Both rates falling with long end falling faster. Signals economic weakness and potential monetary easing.
🔴🔴🔴 Maximum Weakness -
Bull Steepening: Short rates fall while long rates rise. Mixed signals but generally currency negative due to easing expectations.
🔴 Slight Weakness
Flattening Yield Curve
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Bear Flattener: Short-term rates rise faster than long-term rates. Indicates aggressive monetary tightening.
🟢🟢 Strong Strength -
Bull Flattener: Both rates falling with short end falling faster. Suggests immediate monetary easing ahead.
🔴🔴 Strong Weakness -
Bear Flattening: Short rates rise while long rates fall. Mixed signals but slightly positive due to tightening bias.
🟢 Slight Strength
Parallel Shifts
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Bearish Shift: Parallel upward shift in yields. Higher returns across curve attract capital flows.
🟢🟢 Strong Strength -
Bullish Shift: Parallel downward shift in yields. Lower returns across curve discourage investment.
🔴🔴 Strong Weakness